Introduction

Since its beginning in 1996, Valuline has been unique and unequaled. After continued testing of thousands of races,Valuline has now achieved a new level of superiority in product quality. It is the professional risk analysis in horse racing. Handicapping the complete meetings of over 80 Thoroughbred race tracks annually, Valuline is now the major North American handicapping force. Here are the founders of this revolutionary product:

Dr. JohnsonDavid E. Johnson, Ph.D.

Dr. Johnson is an economist and professor with 30 years teaching and research experience at the University of California and the California State Universities. He has addressed public bodies, given testimony at legislative hearings, and has testified in court as an expert witness. He has advised government agencies including the U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Trade Commission, U.S. Department of Energy, and the Attorney General's Office, State of Hawaii. Dr. Johnson's publications include Limited Competition in the West Coast Oil Industry, Case Studies on Energy: The Market Structure Model, and Managerial Economics.



Dr. KenleyJerry C. Kenley, Ph.D.

Dr. Kenley is an economist and professor who has served for 30 years at the University of California, Berkeley, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, and California State University, Hayward. As a research scientist in the study of advanced economic theory, econometrics, taxation and business, he has lectured extensively on the use of economics in solving everyday problems. He is an author of various publications on applied economics, including Market Share Analysis, Case Studies in Finance, and Macroeconomics and Microeconomics. As a consultant, Dr. Kenley has advised business and government, including the City Attorney's Office, Oakland, California, and the Attorney General's Office, State of California. He has been retained by many law firms to provide economic evaluations and expert testimony in court.


Report Highlights & Improvements
  • An excellent odds line.

  • Win and exotic betting strategies.

  • The Pace and Speed Report for every race is included free with each track's Valuline.

  • The incredible All-Track Exotic Keys Report, which horses finish first or second 70% of the time.

  • The All-Track Top Ten Values Report.

  • A Strength Rating for win contenders in each race. Note that better races usually contain stronger horses. A horse with an "average" Strength Rating may be 1/1 TVL odds in a weak field, when a horse with a superior Strength Rating may be 1/1 in a strong field. If you wish to confine your betting to stronger, generally more predictable races, the Strength Rating can help guide you to these bets.

  • Whereas the TVL odds are the composite result of all the factors affecting a win contender's capability, Positive Factors (or special attributes of individual win contenders) are listed. These are intended as extra or "additional information" which has improved the scoring of individual win contenders. (It is for those users who like to know this horse-specific information.)

  • After computer testing of 300,000 races, the TVL odds line is closer to perfection. That is, it now closely mirrors the actual performance of horses. For example a horse with 1/1 TVL odds will win about 50% of the time. (Note: our testing compared TVL predictions to actual race results at all race tracks in North America for the last five years)

  • Following the above testing, the win percentage of all of our "symbol" horses has been increased.

  • Our Thumbs Up horses now win more than 50% of the time. We introduce a Power Play ( "fist" symbol) ,which is a sub-category of Thumbs Up. It qualifies as a "key" (or single) horse in exotic betting. Although it wins at a lower percentage than the Thumbs Up, it offers more value (higher track odds).

  • The new Recommended Exotic Wagers are all intended for 'economical' betting. That is, to make money betting exotics, you must have "key" horses. Our exotic recommendations all use "keys".

  • The Guide has been shortened to remove redundancy, but contains all the original essential information. For your benefit, please read it, and understand the Definitions and Positive Factors -- to make the most of your betting. Simply put, the objective has always been the same -- to bet horses to win whose track odds are higher than TVL odds. In exotic betting, to combine "keys" with value bets.

  • The Pace and Speed Report has been included for the enjoyment of users who view the races live, and like to know the probable running style of the race. That is, which horse is likely to be running in front, and which horse is likely to be closing. It has one particular, although occasional, use in betting: If a bias develops (as on a sloppy track) favor the "pace" horse. If the track is deep or heavy and the closers are winning, favor the "speed" horse.

Frequently Asked Questions

WHO DO YOU LIKE?

This question has been asked countless thousands of times at the track. Handicapping a race has meant trying to select the most likely winner. Most horseplayers, even today, approach betting this way. But this is not the way to make profits; it is the way to lose your bankroll.

"Losers think of selecting the winner and beating a race. Professionals think of betting for value and beating the races."
- Barry Meadow, "Money Secrets at the Racetrack", p.31

WHO SHOULD YOU BET?

The hottest concept in handicapping these days is value betting. In its simplest form, value handicapping means that the bettor handicaps the win contenders in a race and then ranks them by the probability of each horse's chance of winning. The win probability is then converted into mathematically equivalent "fair odds". Let's say you have three win contenders in a race:

HORSE Win Probability Fair Odds Track Odds Overlay WIN BET
Horse A 50% 1-1 3-5 NO NO
Horse B 25% 3-1 5-2 NO NO
Horse C 20% 4-1 8-1 YES YES

To make profits at the races, you must make value bets. That is, you must bet only on overlays, horses whose track odds are higher than their chance of winning, as shown by their fair odds. If you bet on underlays, horses whose track odds are lower than their chance of winning (fair odds), you are doomed to lose over time. In the example above, Horse C is the win bet; odds should be 4-1, but the public has overlooked this horse, and the smart bettor gets 8-1.

"The secret of making money at the racetrack....is to exploit errors in the crowd's line (track odds)."
- Barry Meadow, "Money Secrets at the Racetrack", p.1

"Value Handicapping represents a resurrection of sound gambling principles based on wagering only when the potential return is greater than the investor's risk. No human or super-human can make a profit at the races by betting underlays. And no one in their right mind should be betting at all if they've not learned to distinguish between a bet of value and an underlay. As Dick Mitchell has said, handicappers who restrict all bets to overlays cannot help but win in the long run."
- Mark Cramer, "Value Handicapping" 1998, p.14

To discover the overlays (value bets), you must have an accurate fair odds betting line. This is Valuline. An intelligent horseplayer can construct a reasonably accurate fair odds betting line, but how many do it? It is a time consuming process which must be done after handicapping the win contenders. Will you do it? Overlays are awaiting the smart horse player at all the major tracks now available for betting. With Valuline, America's best betting line, you have the opportunity to discover these overlays and make only value bets.

"Betting overlays consistently will lead to long-term profit..."
- Tim Osterman, Meadow's Racing Monthly, February 1998, p.17

WHY IS VALULINE A NECESSITY FOR MAKING PROFITS?

Valuline provides a fair odds betting line daily for each major race track in North America. The win contenders in each race are listed by the official track program number and their Valuline fair odds. Without Valuline, you will not be able to discover the overlays necessary for you to profit. Not knowing the fair odds, you will lose your bankroll betting underlays.

The Thoroughbred Valuline is the output of a very sophisticated econometric computer program, which is the result of years of professional research and testing. Valuline's objective is to make horse race betting profitable. Valuline provides the tool and the method (betting strategies) to achieve this objective. Simply compare Valuline odds to track odds, discover the overlays, and bet to win. Bet ONLY win contenders whose track odds are higher than their Valuline odds. For example, a horse which is 3-1 on Valuline and 9-2 on the track tote is a value bet.


User Guide

What is the The Valuline?

It is a short list of the most likely winners. These "selections" are the best in the industry, as measured by the:

"WIN FACTOR" =  #winners
#races		  ÷  #win contenders
#horses entered

For example, 6 winners in 9 races, listing only 1/3 of the horses entered on today's card, yields a win factor of 2.0, twice the expected value, and now the industry standard by which all handicappers are measured. The Valuline (TVL) is generated by a complex computer program, which scientifically evaluates all the past performances of each horse in every race. In addition to reviewing the entire history of each horse, the computer also weighs the success of jockeys and trainers, determining each horse's true chance of winning, and converting its win probability into a betting line (TVL).    TVL = [1/WP - 1]

Making and Keeping Profits at the Races

 To profit at the races over time, you must bet on overlays, that is, win contenders whose track odds exceed their true chances of winning. Among the legitimate contenders, the best horse is not necessarily the best bet. In fact, often the best horse is over-bet, and we must look to the second-, third-, or fourth-best horse to win at a price. The TVL tells you what odds to accept on each of the win contenders. The objective is to make "value bets".

NOTE: All Value Bets require actual track odds to be higher than TVL odds.


Betting Strategies

Basic Strategy

Bet to win on overlays to the TVL. The horses are ranked by their chance of winning (WP). However, do not bet by rank. The betting strategy is to bet the horse whose track odds is most above TVL odds (largest overlay).

The Single Value Bet

If only one of the win contenders is an overlay, this is the value bet:

At Golden Gate Fields on Friday, January 7, 2005, six horses ran in race 3. Of the three win contenders, only one was an overlay to TVL odds. The horse, WOODY TWO SHOES, paid $7.80 to win -- a 150% overlay to its 6/5 TVL odds:
GG-3 1 mile DIRT  Six Horses 
(1:50) ACLM 10,000 3Y $11,000

P# dd ex q p3 p6 t   ML  WP  TVL  Track Odds  
1 WOODY TWO SHOES   3/1 45%  6/5  5/2 SINGLE VALUE BET  
3 ISLA VISTA      8/5 17%  5/1  6/5  
5 PETER THE GREEK   6/1 17%  5/1  9/2
Multiple Value Bets

When there is more than one overlay, we pass the race unless there is a standout overlay. Horse "C" is the value bet in the following example: 
Horse  TVL Odds  Track Odds    
A    8/5     9/5    
B    5/2     3/1    
C    5/1     15/1 STANDOUT OVERLAY
Exotic Value Bets

A strategy to winning the exotics is to key the overlays:
  1. A value bet can be "saved" behind the favorite in an exacta.
  2. A value bet can be used in a daily double.
  3. A value bet can be used with our other win contenders in an exacta, quinella, or trifecta.
  4. A value bet can be the key to a good payoff in a pick 3.
  5. Pick 6: This long shot bet may be worth the investment, if there are two or three keys (Thumbs Up or Power Plays) and value bets in the sequence.

Endorsements & Testimonials

Dr. Johnson and Dr. Kenley fine-tuned their econometric model with the help of noted handicapping experts. Following is a partial list of professional handicappers who endorse Valuline:

* Tom Brohamer - pace expert and author of Modern Pace Handicapping.
* Tim Osterman - publisher of Handicapper's Weekly
* Lee Tomlinson - publisher of Mudder's and Turfers
* Paul Braseth - publisher of Northwest Track Review
* M. Scott McMannis - Chicago area racing journalist and frequent contributor to Horseplayer Magazine
* William Murray - author of many books on horse racing and contributor to Daily Racing Form
* Rod Young - publisher of Turfdom

After Wayne Atwell, a first-time entrant and user of Valuline, won the Cal-Neva tournament (World Championship of Race Horse Handicapping) in 1996, Sam Spear, Northern California media racing personality, introduced Valuline. With the growth of the internet and computer use, Dr. Johnson and Dr. Kenley have allowed Valuline to be "taken public". The Thoroughbred Valuline is now available daily for virtually all racetracks in North America.