Preface
Every serious race handicapper needs an arsenal of high-powered information to fight the daily pari-mutuel battles. TrackMaster blends the latest computer technology with a team of expert race consultants to produce more winning days at the race track. It's long been understood that players with accurate class and speed ratings have an edge over the average player. TrackMaster combines these two powerful ratings to produce that high-tech advantage. Pace ratings are similarly invaluable for assessing how a race is to unfold. These proprietary ratings allow you to easily determine a horse's particular racing style. Finally, power ratings are the amazing handicapping innovation devised by TrackMaster that combine speed, class, pace and numerous other factors into one dynamic number. TrackMaster power ratings give horse players a powerful tool not found anywhere else.
The Power of Combining Class and Speed
Class ratings and
Equibase Speed Figures are provided for every race in North America when available. While these are useful handicapping tools used independently, they become extremely powerful when used together, particularly when horses are moving in class or shipping to different tracks, and it is not clear from other available information if the horse will be competitive in the race.
As a review, let us explain the basics of class ratings and Equibase Speed Figures as they appear in TrackMaster.
Class Ratings
Class ratings are based on projected finishing times based on the Equibase Speed Figures of the individual horses coming into each race. Our research showed us how to take the last six months of speed figures from all of the entrants in a race, and make the best possible predication as to the winning time.
So a $25,000 claiming race could have a class rating of 88 today and then the next week an 84 should the horses change to a particularly weak field, or a 92 with a particularly strong field. The new, more powerful class ratings are best described as a relative rating for a given field of horses in a given race at a given track.
Equibase Speed Figures
TrackMaster utilizes Equibase Speed Figures which are calculated in three basic steps.
First, a "raw" figure is computed using the actual race time and a complex formula.
Second, the "raw" figure is adjusted by the appropriate calculated track variant which is specific to a track, distance and surface. Finally, the adjusted figure is further adjusted by the daily track variant (DTV). The DTV is computed using a proprietary formula which computes the difference (or deviation) between the winning times at a specific track and the appropriate par times, for each racing day. There can be multiple DTVs on a given day if conditions change sufficiently through the day to affect the underlying condition of the track.
Class Ratings and Equibase Speed Figures Working Together
If the class rating of a previous race was an 80 and a given horse from that race ran an Speed Figure of 75, TrackMaster infers that the horse finished 5 rating points off of par, after all adjustments have been taken into account. To put things into perspective, a point is equal to about 1/10 of a second at a one mile race.
For simplicity, you can think of one rating point as a length.
Horses Moving Up in Class
Let us say you saw the following horses entered today in a class 80 race:
Assuming all other factors equal, the decision comes down to class and speed. The issue in this race: Can the B horse successfully move up two notches in class (from a recent 78 to an 80) to defeat the A horse that has been racing competitively in 80 class company. The power of the speed and class relationship becomes apparent in this example. In its last two outings, the B horse has achieved an Equibase Speed Figure that is equal to or higher than the class entered today. Therefore, it has achieved the "par" time of the 80 class today. Given this achievement, combined with the better absolute speed figures over the last three races by a significant margin, the B horse has an excellent chance to defeat the A horse. Of course, the betting strategy would be odds dependant, but if these are the only two contenders, there is a good chance the price on the B horse will be more attractive than the A horse, making this a great wagering opportunity.
Horses Moving Down in Class
Let us say you saw the following horses entered today in a class 70 race:
Assuming all other factors equal, the decision in this race comes down to the relevance of the big class drop of the A horse, and whether this class drop is enough to overcome the obvious speed advantage of the B horse. The power of the speed and class relationship is once again apparent in this example. While the A horse was entered in class 74 and 75 races, it is hardly a class 74 or 75 horse. Its Equibase Speed Figures are so far off the class rating (so far below par), one can conclude that it has not yet found its class. Is it possible that class 70 is its class? It is possible, but in all likelihood, such a class drop will entice a lot of action, and the horse will go off at a short price. Remember, a horse entered in a given class does not make the horse that class of horse. It must race somewhat competitively to be considered of that class.
Trainers will occasionally enter horses in claiming races above the horse's ability to get work (with poor speed figures resulting) at no risk of being claimed. These horses can win after the big class drop. However, as illustrated above, one can identify class droppers with little chance to win by using the speed and class together.
Class Ratings In 2 And 3 Year Old Races
Special caution must be used with class ratings in 2 year old and 3 year old races. Since class ratings are based on par times, they rise as the ages of horses do since the par times improve. We adjust for 2 and 3 year old races depending on when they are run during the year. An example can help explain the effects.
A $20,000 claiming race for 3 year olds run in February would have a class rating of 81. The same race run in November would have a class rating of 84. On average, 3 year olds will run 3 rating points (0.6 seconds at a mile) faster after they age 9 months. While the class ratings are accurate reflections of the par times, they can present a problem when horses are laid off as the following example illustrates:
Assuming today's race is for 3 year olds and rated as a class 84 event, it would appear that the B horse has a big edge in class and a slight edge in speed. However, it could be that the races were run on the following dates:
The A horse's "aging" would de facto put it in a higher class. The long layoff aside, the A horse had been running 3-4 rating points below par while the B horse has been running 5 below par. Given the way the class ratings and pars work, the A horse is not really moving "up" in class based on ability; only moving "up" as a result of aging.
Pace Style And Figures
Pace styles are a relative mathematical average of where a horse has raced historically at different points of call. TrackMaster estimates positions at the early call, middle call, and race finish to let you know where that horse usually is at those stages of the race. These calculations allow handicappers to identify a horse's particular racing style, whether it be early speed, maintained, or late closing speed.
At the early call, the horse has been averaging 3.5. This figure means that the horse has been racing between third and fourth position at this point of call. At the middle point a figure of 3.2 means typically between third and fourth, but a little closer to third. He then winds up at the finish with a 2.9, or just about third. To demonstrate how these figures are computed, an example will help. If a horse raced in three races, and he was third (3) at the middle call in one, second (2) in the next, and fifth (5) in the last, his position would be (3 + 2 + 5) / 3, or 3.3 at the middle call. TrackMaster then adds adjustments for the field size and change from one distance to another. For example, a horse racing third in a twelve-horse field is given more front credit than a horse racing third in a five-horse field. Furthermore, a sprinter who has been running third at the early call will be given more front-running credit than a router running third.
TrackMaster analyzes a horse's pace figures at the same calls in four ways. This unique style of presenting pace figures is based on the fact that horses are creatures of habit and once a horse develops a particular style of racing (i.e. early speed, stalking or pressing the pace, off the pace or closing speed) he will continue to demonstrate that style throughout his racing career.
Late speed horses will display low figures at the early call. Even though their final number may be higher than the early and middle figures, you must respect horses with this type of speed, especially on a race track that favors that style. Pace figures for horses who typically lag back early and save themselves for one late burst in the stretch will appear in the middle or bottom of the early column and then continue to move up through the middle and finish columns. The #R represents the number of races (up to maximum of 5) used to calculate the pace figures. The greater the #R the more confident you can be that these figures will be an accurate predictor of where the horse is likely to be. If an asterisk (*) precedes the number of races, the races used for the pace style calculation were run on a surface opposite from today's surface. Our data will use the history of the opposite surface if this horse has no past performance information on today's surface.
TrackMaster Power Ratings
Continuing our dedication to facilitate handicapping for TrackMaster customers, we have developed TrackMaster power ratings (TPRs). A TPR is a single number assigned to each horse running in a race. It reflects the horse's strength in three measurable areas: speed, class and pace. Furthermore, the relative weighting of these three factors is different for each track, and is determined by what has been winning in the recent past at each track (the track profile).
Power Rating Components
The speed component includes:
TrackMaster Power Rating Basics
TPRs are not the "end all" of handicapping tools. They are simply another statistic designed to ease the handicapping burden. For the bettor that has no more than a few minutes to look at a race, then betting the highest TPR in the race might be called for. However, this is not recommended as TPRs do not reflect all of the relevant statistics for a given race (though we believe they reflect most of the key statistics). In general, bets should be odds-based. That is, if horse A has a 25% chance of winning and is going off at 7:1 and horse B has a 50% chance of winning and is going off at 3:5, horse A is the better "value" bet. Since we will be using these terms - odds and margin - during the remainder of this explanation, an example is called for.
The odds mean the odds at post time. The margin means the difference in the TPRs between the highest power rated horse and the next highest power rated horse. In the example above, the margin from the highest power rated horse to the next (Horse A to Horse B) is 0.1. The margin from B to C is 2.3. If a win bet were called for, leaving all other factors aside, a bet on Horse B is probably the best opportunity.
Finding TrackMaster Power Ratings
The power rating is found next to the morning line odds on page one of the Snapshot/Power section of the main menu. This positioning is to enable you to get a feel for "value betting" based on odds. As mentioned earlier, while the TPR is a powerfully valuable tool, it is just that, a tool, and should not be used as the sole criterion for a wagering decision.
Using TrackMaster Power Rating Historical Results
We provide a simple table of historical results to use the TPR (optimized for maximum profitability). Each track will have a separate table based on its own unique weightings of the three TPR components based on what has been winning at that particular track (track profile). Since the two key determinants of TPR profitability are odds and margin (as discussed above), a table like the following will appear on page 3 of the Snapshot/Power section of the main menu. This application of TPRs may not be for everyone. But for those who use the table, the rewards may be significant.
Power Rating Margin Table
The table is a historical look at the success of TPRs under specific circumstances. The table is based on a period of time ranging from last year to the first half of any particular meet. In time, the table will be based on roughly the last 100 racing days at a particular track. The table reflects results of our computer simulating betting the highest power rated horse in each historical race to win. The rows represent different ranges of odds (to $1) that the highest power rated horse went off at. The columns represent the margin of difference in power rating points between the highest power rated horse and the second highest power rated horse in a particular race. Again, the rows will be referred to as odds (or odds bands) and the columns as margin, for short. Each "cell" in the table has two numbers. The top number is the percent of races won under the given odds and margin circumstances. For example, using the table above, when the highest power rated horse went off between 1.1:1 and 3:1 (second row), and had a power rating point margin of between 2 and 3.9 points (third column), that horse won 25% of the races (historically). The bottom number represents the percent profit (or loss) for betting all races under the odds and margin conditions. Using the same example, while you would have won 25% of the time, you would have lost $1 for every $100 bet (-01%). Another example might be helpful. Based on the table, a horse that went off at near 6:1 (fourth row from the top) with a TPR margin of near 1.5 points (second margin column), historically won 19% of the time and returned a profit of +20%. The purpose of this table is to take a look at recent history, and apply it to the present to uncover good wagering opportunities. It can also be used to help manage money, betting heavier on the historically profitable situations, and less money on the less profitable situations. We would like to cite two particular cautions in using the tables: The table is based on history and history may not repeat itself. Present returns may not resemble what has historically been occurring. The table is based on hundreds of races. A bettor must take a long term view of the opportunities. Some profitable opportunities may only win 10% of the time. This does not mean that you would historically win every tenth race! There is some randomness to the "order" of the win percentage and this must be taken into account before wagering. In sum, marrying the power ratings of today with what has occurred historically by examining the appropriate table can be a powerful tool to maximizing your profitability at the race track.
Advanced TrackMaster Power Rating Historical Results and Track Profile
The final power rating tool is a historical table that appears on page 4 of the Snapshot/Power menu selection. As mentioned in the beginning, the TPR has three primary components, speed, class and pace, and the relative weightings of each are optimized based on what has been winning at a particular track. The table isolates the three components by weighting each of them 100% (and the other two 0%) and betting the highest power rated horse to win. While it would generally be foolish to bet along a one dimensional line, the relative results are indicative of what has been winning at a particular track, and therefore reflects a track's profile. Consider the following table as an illustration.
Track Profile Chart
The odds rows have the same meaning as the table discussed earlier. In addition, each cell has the same meaning with the top number indicating the percent of races won by the highest power rated horse in each category, and the bottom number representing the profitability percentage. Again, understand that this table is designed to be used on a relative basis, not an absolute basis. The interpretation of the information in the example above is that the track in question is a "speed track" (the speed component results in the highest relative win percentage and highest relative profitability percentage over the other two factors). While the pace factor is still significant (its numbers not too far behind speed), the class importance appears to be quite low. This type of information gives great insight into the track profile and what type of horse will do well.
Historic Value Indicators
TrackMaster has added historic value indicators to the Snapshot/Power category. These symbols (+, L and B) will allow quick identification of those situations which have historically shown to produce a positive long-term profit. The "+" symbol next to the morning line odds means that the power rating margin table displays a positive historical profit. Remember, this table indicates profit based on both post time odds and the power rating difference between the two top power rated horses. This "+" indication simply saves the step of going to the table. Since we cannot predict post time odds, we use the morning line to approximate the post time odds. The "L" symbol denotes a potentially valuable long shot play, defined as post time odds of 8-1 or greater. "L" plays are based on computer analysis of various "angles" which have produced long-term positive profits. It is important to understand that these indicators are based on maximizing profit rather than percentage of races won. Results from the many tracks TrackMaster supports reflect a win percentage only near 10%. The "B" symbol indicates both the "+" and "L" conditions apply. When using these symbols or the tables in the Snapshot/Power category, remember that they are based on a historical look at the success of power ratings under specific conditions. History may not repeat itself. As always, we do not recommend using power ratings alone. Though it is believed that power ratings reflect key statistics, we encourage you to use them in combination with the rest of the valuable information available.
Every serious race handicapper needs an arsenal of high-powered information to fight the daily pari-mutuel battles. TrackMaster blends the latest computer technology with a team of expert race consultants to produce more winning days at the race track. It's long been understood that players with accurate class and speed ratings have an edge over the average player. TrackMaster combines these two powerful ratings to produce that high-tech advantage. Pace ratings are similarly invaluable for assessing how a race is to unfold. These proprietary ratings allow you to easily determine a horse's particular racing style. Finally, power ratings are the amazing handicapping innovation devised by TrackMaster that combine speed, class, pace and numerous other factors into one dynamic number. TrackMaster power ratings give horse players a powerful tool not found anywhere else.
The Power of Combining Class and Speed
Class ratings and
Equibase Speed Figures are provided for every race in North America when available. While these are useful handicapping tools used independently, they become extremely powerful when used together, particularly when horses are moving in class or shipping to different tracks, and it is not clear from other available information if the horse will be competitive in the race.
As a review, let us explain the basics of class ratings and Equibase Speed Figures as they appear in TrackMaster.Class Ratings
Class ratings are based on projected finishing times based on the
Equibase Speed Figures of the individual horses coming into each race. Our research showed us how to take the last six months of speed figures from all of the entrants in a race, and make the best possible predication as to the winning time.
So a $25,000 claiming race could have a class rating of 88 today and then the next week an 84 should the horses change to a particularly weak field, or a 92 with a particularly strong field. The new, more powerful class ratings are best described as a relative rating for a given field of horses in a given race at a given track. Equibase Speed FiguresTrackMaster utilizes
Equibase Speed Figures which are calculated in three basic steps.
First, a "raw" figure is computed using the actual race time and a complex formula.
Second, the "raw" figure is adjusted by the appropriate calculated track variant which is specific to a track, distance and surface. Finally, the adjusted figure is further adjusted by the daily track variant (DTV). The DTV is computed using a proprietary formula which computes the difference (or deviation) between the winning times at a specific track and the appropriate par times, for each racing day. There can be multiple DTVs on a given day if conditions change sufficiently through the day to affect the underlying condition of the track.
Class Ratings and
Equibase Speed Figures Working Together
If the class rating of a previous race was an 80 and a given horse from that race ran an
Speed Figure of 75, TrackMaster infers that the horse finished 5 rating points off of par, after all adjustments have been taken into account. To put things into perspective, a point is equal to about 1/10 of a second at a one mile race.
For simplicity, you can think of one rating point as a length.Horses Moving Up in Class
Let us say you saw the following horses entered today in a class 80 race:
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Assuming all other factors equal, the decision comes down to class and speed. The issue in this race: Can the B horse successfully move up two notches in class (from a recent 78 to an 80) to defeat the A horse that has been racing competitively in 80 class company. The power of the speed and class relationship becomes apparent in this example. In its last two outings, the B horse has achieved an
Equibase Speed Figure that is equal to or higher than the class entered today. Therefore, it has achieved the "par" time of the 80 class today. Given this achievement, combined with the better absolute speed figures over the last three races by a significant margin, the B horse has an excellent chance to defeat the A horse. Of course, the betting strategy would be odds dependant, but if these are the only two contenders, there is a good chance the price on the B horse will be more attractive than the A horse, making this a great wagering opportunity. Horses Moving Down in Class
Let us say you saw the following horses entered today in a class 70 race:
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Assuming all other factors equal, the decision in this race comes down to the relevance of the big class drop of the A horse, and whether this class drop is enough to overcome the obvious speed advantage of the B horse. The power of the speed and class relationship is once again apparent in this example. While the A horse was entered in class 74 and 75 races, it is hardly a class 74 or 75 horse. Its
Equibase Speed Figures are so far off the class rating (so far below par), one can conclude that it has not yet found its class. Is it possible that class 70 is its class? It is possible, but in all likelihood, such a class drop will entice a lot of action, and the horse will go off at a short price. Remember, a horse entered in a given class does not make the horse that class of horse. It must race somewhat competitively to be considered of that class.
Trainers will occasionally enter horses in claiming races above the horse's ability to get work (with poor speed figures resulting) at no risk of being claimed. These horses can win after the big class drop. However, as illustrated above, one can identify class droppers with little chance to win by using the speed and class together.
Class Ratings In 2 And 3 Year Old Races
Special caution must be used with class ratings in 2 year old and 3 year old races. Since class ratings are based on par times, they rise as the ages of horses do since the par times improve. We adjust for 2 and 3 year old races depending on when they are run during the year. An example can help explain the effects.
A $20,000 claiming race for 3 year olds run in February would have a class rating of 81. The same race run in November would have a class rating of 84. On average, 3 year olds will run 3 rating points (0.6 seconds at a mile) faster after they age 9 months. While the class ratings are accurate reflections of the par times, they can present a problem when horses are laid off as the following example illustrates:
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Assuming today's race is for 3 year olds and rated as a class 84 event, it would appear that the B horse has a big edge in class and a slight edge in speed. However, it could be that the races were run on the following dates:
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The A horse's "aging" would de facto put it in a higher class. The long layoff aside, the A horse had been running 3-4 rating points below par while the B horse has been running 5 below par. Given the way the class ratings and pars work, the A horse is not really moving "up" in class based on ability; only moving "up" as a result of aging.
Pace Style And Figures
Pace styles are a relative mathematical average of where a horse has raced historically at different points of call. TrackMaster estimates positions at the early call, middle call, and race finish to let you know where that horse usually is at those stages of the race. These calculations allow handicappers to identify a horse's particular racing style, whether it be early speed, maintained, or late closing speed.
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At the early call, the horse has been averaging 3.5. This figure means that the horse has been racing between third and fourth position at this point of call. At the middle point a figure of 3.2 means typically between third and fourth, but a little closer to third. He then winds up at the finish with a 2.9, or just about third. To demonstrate how these figures are computed, an example will help. If a horse raced in three races, and he was third (3) at the middle call in one, second (2) in the next, and fifth (5) in the last, his position would be (3 + 2 + 5) / 3, or 3.3 at the middle call. TrackMaster then adds adjustments for the field size and change from one distance to another. For example, a horse racing third in a twelve-horse field is given more front credit than a horse racing third in a five-horse field. Furthermore, a sprinter who has been running third at the early call will be given more front-running credit than a router running third.
TrackMaster analyzes a horse's pace figures at the same calls in four ways. This unique style of presenting pace figures is based on the fact that horses are creatures of habit and once a horse develops a particular style of racing (i.e. early speed, stalking or pressing the pace, off the pace or closing speed) he will continue to demonstrate that style throughout his racing career.
- All races (sprints/routes) on today's surface
- Races at today's distance/surface within a half furlong of today's distance
- Sprint races (less than a mile)
- Route races (mile or farther)
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Late speed horses will display low figures at the early call. Even though their final number may be higher than the early and middle figures, you must respect horses with this type of speed, especially on a race track that favors that style. Pace figures for horses who typically lag back early and save themselves for one late burst in the stretch will appear in the middle or bottom of the early column and then continue to move up through the middle and finish columns. The #R represents the number of races (up to maximum of 5) used to calculate the pace figures. The greater the #R the more confident you can be that these figures will be an accurate predictor of where the horse is likely to be. If an asterisk (*) precedes the number of races, the races used for the pace style calculation were run on a surface opposite from today's surface. Our data will use the history of the opposite surface if this horse has no past performance information on today's surface.
TrackMaster Power Ratings
Continuing our dedication to facilitate handicapping for TrackMaster customers, we have developed TrackMaster power ratings (TPRs). A TPR is a single number assigned to each horse running in a race. It reflects the horse's strength in three measurable areas: speed, class and pace. Furthermore, the relative weighting of these three factors is different for each track, and is determined by what has been winning in the recent past at each track (the track profile).
Power Rating Components
The speed component includes:
- Average of the best 5 Speed Figures in the last 10 races
- Average Speed Figure for today's distance and surface
- Average Speed Figure overall
- Last 3 Speed Figures
- General speed improvement and "bounce"
- Layoffs
- Average class rating for today's distance and surface
- Average class rating overall
- Last class rating
- General class movement up or down
- Layoffs
- Early, middle and finishing pace style figures for today's distance and surface
- Early, middle and finishing pace style figures for sprints and routes
- Jockey or trainer proficiency
- Horse's conditioning (what distances the horse has run recently)
- "Exceptions" for troubled races
- Post positions or track bias
- Weight carried, equipment or medication
- Workouts
- Money earned
- Today's track condition
- Weighting of the Power Rating Components
- Speed
- Class
- Pace
- The odds of the highest (or near-highest) power rated horse
- The margin that the highest power rated horse has over its rival's power ratings.
TrackMaster Power Rating Basics
TPRs are not the "end all" of handicapping tools. They are simply another statistic designed to ease the handicapping burden. For the bettor that has no more than a few minutes to look at a race, then betting the highest TPR in the race might be called for. However, this is not recommended as TPRs do not reflect all of the relevant statistics for a given race (though we believe they reflect most of the key statistics). In general, bets should be odds-based. That is, if horse A has a 25% chance of winning and is going off at 7:1 and horse B has a 50% chance of winning and is going off at 3:5, horse A is the better "value" bet. Since we will be using these terms - odds and margin - during the remainder of this explanation, an example is called for.
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The odds mean the odds at post time. The margin means the difference in the TPRs between the highest power rated horse and the next highest power rated horse. In the example above, the margin from the highest power rated horse to the next (Horse A to Horse B) is 0.1. The margin from B to C is 2.3. If a win bet were called for, leaving all other factors aside, a bet on Horse B is probably the best opportunity.
Finding TrackMaster Power Ratings
The power rating is found next to the morning line odds on page one of the Snapshot/Power section of the main menu. This positioning is to enable you to get a feel for "value betting" based on odds. As mentioned earlier, while the TPR is a powerfully valuable tool, it is just that, a tool, and should not be used as the sole criterion for a wagering decision.
Using TrackMaster Power Rating Historical Results
We provide a simple table of historical results to use the TPR (optimized for maximum profitability). Each track will have a separate table based on its own unique weightings of the three TPR components based on what has been winning at that particular track (track profile). Since the two key determinants of TPR profitability are odds and margin (as discussed above), a table like the following will appear on page 3 of the Snapshot/Power section of the main menu. This application of TPRs may not be for everyone. But for those who use the table, the rewards may be significant.
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Power Rating Margin Table
The table is a historical look at the success of TPRs under specific circumstances. The table is based on a period of time ranging from last year to the first half of any particular meet. In time, the table will be based on roughly the last 100 racing days at a particular track. The table reflects results of our computer simulating betting the highest power rated horse in each historical race to win. The rows represent different ranges of odds (to $1) that the highest power rated horse went off at. The columns represent the margin of difference in power rating points between the highest power rated horse and the second highest power rated horse in a particular race. Again, the rows will be referred to as odds (or odds bands) and the columns as margin, for short. Each "cell" in the table has two numbers. The top number is the percent of races won under the given odds and margin circumstances. For example, using the table above, when the highest power rated horse went off between 1.1:1 and 3:1 (second row), and had a power rating point margin of between 2 and 3.9 points (third column), that horse won 25% of the races (historically). The bottom number represents the percent profit (or loss) for betting all races under the odds and margin conditions. Using the same example, while you would have won 25% of the time, you would have lost $1 for every $100 bet (-01%). Another example might be helpful. Based on the table, a horse that went off at near 6:1 (fourth row from the top) with a TPR margin of near 1.5 points (second margin column), historically won 19% of the time and returned a profit of +20%. The purpose of this table is to take a look at recent history, and apply it to the present to uncover good wagering opportunities. It can also be used to help manage money, betting heavier on the historically profitable situations, and less money on the less profitable situations. We would like to cite two particular cautions in using the tables: The table is based on history and history may not repeat itself. Present returns may not resemble what has historically been occurring. The table is based on hundreds of races. A bettor must take a long term view of the opportunities. Some profitable opportunities may only win 10% of the time. This does not mean that you would historically win every tenth race! There is some randomness to the "order" of the win percentage and this must be taken into account before wagering. In sum, marrying the power ratings of today with what has occurred historically by examining the appropriate table can be a powerful tool to maximizing your profitability at the race track.
Advanced TrackMaster Power Rating Historical Results and Track Profile
The final power rating tool is a historical table that appears on page 4 of the Snapshot/Power menu selection. As mentioned in the beginning, the TPR has three primary components, speed, class and pace, and the relative weightings of each are optimized based on what has been winning at a particular track. The table isolates the three components by weighting each of them 100% (and the other two 0%) and betting the highest power rated horse to win. While it would generally be foolish to bet along a one dimensional line, the relative results are indicative of what has been winning at a particular track, and therefore reflects a track's profile. Consider the following table as an illustration.
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Track Profile Chart
The odds rows have the same meaning as the table discussed earlier. In addition, each cell has the same meaning with the top number indicating the percent of races won by the highest power rated horse in each category, and the bottom number representing the profitability percentage. Again, understand that this table is designed to be used on a relative basis, not an absolute basis. The interpretation of the information in the example above is that the track in question is a "speed track" (the speed component results in the highest relative win percentage and highest relative profitability percentage over the other two factors). While the pace factor is still significant (its numbers not too far behind speed), the class importance appears to be quite low. This type of information gives great insight into the track profile and what type of horse will do well.
Historic Value Indicators
TrackMaster has added historic value indicators to the Snapshot/Power category. These symbols (+, L and B) will allow quick identification of those situations which have historically shown to produce a positive long-term profit. The "+" symbol next to the morning line odds means that the power rating margin table displays a positive historical profit. Remember, this table indicates profit based on both post time odds and the power rating difference between the two top power rated horses. This "+" indication simply saves the step of going to the table. Since we cannot predict post time odds, we use the morning line to approximate the post time odds. The "L" symbol denotes a potentially valuable long shot play, defined as post time odds of 8-1 or greater. "L" plays are based on computer analysis of various "angles" which have produced long-term positive profits. It is important to understand that these indicators are based on maximizing profit rather than percentage of races won. Results from the many tracks TrackMaster supports reflect a win percentage only near 10%. The "B" symbol indicates both the "+" and "L" conditions apply. When using these symbols or the tables in the Snapshot/Power category, remember that they are based on a historical look at the success of power ratings under specific conditions. History may not repeat itself. As always, we do not recommend using power ratings alone. Though it is believed that power ratings reflect key statistics, we encourage you to use them in combination with the rest of the valuable information available.